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2024-12-14 00:11:11

On November 8, I suggested that the reason for lightening the position was that if it continued to rise here, there would be a technical deviation at the daily level after closing at 3489.78 points. The same is true of the pressure now. As long as it closes at 3470.66 points today, it will form a technical deviation.In another case, if it opens higher and goes lower today, and the closing price does not exceed 3470.66 points, then the short-term estimate will continue to step back and digest. On the contrary, this situation is a good thing. We only need to deal with it with high throwing and low sucking, and then we will have a real acceleration cycle after we gain momentum again.1. This time, boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand are put in the first place, which is basically consistent with the official media preheating. But I emphasized this piece yesterday. It's not that everyone doesn't want to spend, but that they don't have money to spend. It depends on whether the money issued by the special national debt can be cashed in, which will benefit big consumption in the short term, but the overall increase of this piece is really not small. Don't blindly chase after it.


Finally, the statement of the property market still reiterates "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", and there may not be much unexpected things coming out. This is to remind everyone. There is a high probability that the interest rate will continue to be lowered, so the RRR cut should be on the way.First, simply sort out the contents of the after-hours meeting:On November 8, I suggested that the reason for lightening the position was that if it continued to rise here, there would be a technical deviation at the daily level after closing at 3489.78 points. The same is true of the pressure now. As long as it closes at 3470.66 points today, it will form a technical deviation.


Therefore, today's trend is very critical. If it is significantly higher, it will be directly opened near or above 3,500 points, especially if it can stand at 3,489.78 points at the close, then there will be multiple divergence structures here, and there will only be one way to accelerate the short-term, otherwise once the structure is formed, it may be very uncomfortable.3. The monetary policy has shifted from steady to moderately loose, which has been mentioned again since 2011. I don't need to say much, but this is expected, and it hasn't landed yet, and the above supplement is to keep the bottom line of systemic risk, so it won't be like the previous flood irrigation, at least in 2014. Leveraged cattle should be difficult to reproduce.Overnight, the external stock markets were mixed, and the three major indexes of the United States weakened collectively, while the Chinese stock index rose by 8.35% and the A50 index rose by 0.84%. The external sentiment was obviously beneficial to China assets. Therefore, there is no suspense in opening higher today, but if the opening is too large, it is not a good thing.

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